- Subiect Autor
- #481
BITCOIN The Halving trend-line has the next Market Top at $70000
The moment cryptotraders have been waiting for is finally here. Only 5 days left for Bitcoin's Halving No3. We all know the significance of this event and the fundamentals behind it regarding the supply. On this study I will focus on the Halving trend-line (i.e. the line that connects all Halving dates) and how it can reveal the next Peak of the current Market Cycle.
** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
** The Halving trend-line **
As I mentioned above above it is the essence of this study and represents the trend-line that connects all Halving dates. This is displayed on the chart by the orange curve. As seen, the price doesn't diverge much from the Halving trend-line before the Halving takes place on any of the Market Cycles. Only after the Halving do we see Bitcoin aggressively detaching from the Halving trend-line, which of course represents the parabolic run towards a new Cycle High.
** The Pre-Halving / Post-Halving rallies **
I have classified each Cycle into two phases: the pre-Halving and the post-Halving.
- The pre-Halving phase starts from the very first contact that the price makes with the Halving trend-line, near the end of the Bear Cycle. It ends at the Halving date itself.
- The post-Halving phase starts from the Halving date and ends at the Cycle's Top (peak). Practically represents the parabolic bull run of the Cycle.
In Cycle 1, BTC rose +488% pre-Halving and +9034% post-Halving. The rise pre to post-Halving was +1750%.
In Cycle 2, BTC rose +290% pre-Halving and +2816% post-Halving. The rise pre to post-Halving was +870%.
This rise difference post-Halving between Cycles is -50%, meaning that Cycle 2 was half the rise of Cycle 1 pre-Halving.
Assuming each post-Halving rise is -50% of the previous Cycle and since the pre-Halving rise of Cycle 3 is more or less done at +145%, we can calculate the post-Halving rise as follows:
pre-Halving rise = -50% of 870% (Cycle 2) = +435%. +435% of 145% is +630%. Price-wise this is marginally north of $70000.
** Timing the Top **
All previous market peaks (Tops) have been on the outer tiers of the parabolic trend-lines generated by the Halving trend-line. Those are illustrated by the light dashed orange lines. The top of Cycle 1 was almost on Tier 3. The top of Cycle 2 was exactly on Tier 2. We can assume then that the top of Cycle 3 will not exceed Tier 1, which is around February 2022.
Of course this is just one of the many models and projections on the future peak of BTCUSD . Most place the top around $100000, some even go much higher. No matter how sophisticated the models are, they are of course subject to a degree of error. But $70000 is one of the more moderate projections you will see.
So how important do you think the Halving trend-line can be when it comes to estimating the Cycle phases? Do you agree with the $70000 Top
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/B...-trend-line-has-the-next-Market-Top-at-70000/
The moment cryptotraders have been waiting for is finally here. Only 5 days left for Bitcoin's Halving No3. We all know the significance of this event and the fundamentals behind it regarding the supply. On this study I will focus on the Halving trend-line (i.e. the line that connects all Halving dates) and how it can reveal the next Peak of the current Market Cycle.
** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
** The Halving trend-line **
As I mentioned above above it is the essence of this study and represents the trend-line that connects all Halving dates. This is displayed on the chart by the orange curve. As seen, the price doesn't diverge much from the Halving trend-line before the Halving takes place on any of the Market Cycles. Only after the Halving do we see Bitcoin aggressively detaching from the Halving trend-line, which of course represents the parabolic run towards a new Cycle High.
** The Pre-Halving / Post-Halving rallies **
I have classified each Cycle into two phases: the pre-Halving and the post-Halving.
- The pre-Halving phase starts from the very first contact that the price makes with the Halving trend-line, near the end of the Bear Cycle. It ends at the Halving date itself.
- The post-Halving phase starts from the Halving date and ends at the Cycle's Top (peak). Practically represents the parabolic bull run of the Cycle.
In Cycle 1, BTC rose +488% pre-Halving and +9034% post-Halving. The rise pre to post-Halving was +1750%.
In Cycle 2, BTC rose +290% pre-Halving and +2816% post-Halving. The rise pre to post-Halving was +870%.
This rise difference post-Halving between Cycles is -50%, meaning that Cycle 2 was half the rise of Cycle 1 pre-Halving.
Assuming each post-Halving rise is -50% of the previous Cycle and since the pre-Halving rise of Cycle 3 is more or less done at +145%, we can calculate the post-Halving rise as follows:
pre-Halving rise = -50% of 870% (Cycle 2) = +435%. +435% of 145% is +630%. Price-wise this is marginally north of $70000.
** Timing the Top **
All previous market peaks (Tops) have been on the outer tiers of the parabolic trend-lines generated by the Halving trend-line. Those are illustrated by the light dashed orange lines. The top of Cycle 1 was almost on Tier 3. The top of Cycle 2 was exactly on Tier 2. We can assume then that the top of Cycle 3 will not exceed Tier 1, which is around February 2022.
Of course this is just one of the many models and projections on the future peak of BTCUSD . Most place the top around $100000, some even go much higher. No matter how sophisticated the models are, they are of course subject to a degree of error. But $70000 is one of the more moderate projections you will see.
So how important do you think the Halving trend-line can be when it comes to estimating the Cycle phases? Do you agree with the $70000 Top
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/B...-trend-line-has-the-next-Market-Top-at-70000/
asta am facut… dar dureaza 72 de ore verificarea 
